A Guide to Implementing the Theory of Constraints (TOC)

PowerPoints

Preface

Introduction

Contents

Next Step

Advanced

 

Bottom Line

Production

Supply Chain

Tool Box

Strategy

Projects

& More ...

Healthcare

 

Layers Of Understanding

One Simple
Rule

Efrat’s Cloud

Advanced Dice Simulators

 

 

Some Background

My first crude Excel dice simulators date from 1997 or thereabouts.? I guess that a lot of other people have also made such efforts through their own volition or in response to class-work requirements, although I have not seen any of these.? I took my early effort to a healthcare providers’ conference and ran it “live” on-screen.? That was sufficient to show me just how little intuition we have for these “facts of life.”? Since that time I have revisited these simulators on numerous occasions, getting better all of the time.? You will have seen the more basic and singular example earlier in this website.? That particular iteration has been around since early 2009.? This is the classic case direct from The Goal.

The link page is here Balanced Line Dice Simulator

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Some Context

If you go deep into the bowels of Theory of Constraints you will find that the likes of the late John Caspari and others were tinkering around with these sorts of things a long time ago and in doing so proving to themselves things that are either/or;

·         Counterintuitive

·         Would take a lot of time to do in real-life with all of its confounding issues.

People such as Karl Buckridge have always used these tacit approaches, Tim Sullivan (coordinator of the first TOCICO Dictionary) and one or two other people have come forward with their own individual approaches to these games using various combinations of dice.

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Advanced Simulations

Once you have a basic simulator running, then you can start to play.? That is the substantiation for the advanced simulations.? All of the add-ons occur on the actual sheet, the rules if you like.? Things like the gating rules, buffer duration and so-forth.? You play, you learn.? This particular simulator was extensively reworked in late 2012 and then put on the website for the first time.

The link page here Advanced Dice Simulators

Primarily these simulators are to test the range of outcomes that can be expected from playing these games out in real time with real dice.? You want a result for any particular game that is clear cut.? That is how you get this “stuff” inside of people’s heads.? Telling them, or showing them, does not work.? Doing it does work.? The text is written for people who want to teach this sort of experiential learning.? You have to know it to understand it.

There are in fact still more things that you can do with such simple simulators – additional understanding that can be brought forward.? But there is more than enough here to start with.? Internalize this first.

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The One That You Can’t Access

Late in 2014, in preparation for a new commitment, and over a period of time that I wouldn’t like to divulge, I finally rebuilt the simulator from the ground up.? That means each part is a module – as I imagine a programmer would program – that is what I always wanted to do with it, but when things just “grow” that’s not how it happens.? And if you didn’t know what you wanted before you had it, how could you have “designed it?”? And then having two simulators; an old one and a new one, each with different dice behaviour means countless testing to convince yourself that neither has a “bug” and that both are behaving within their expected variation.? Anyway that is all water under the bridge.

The advanced simulator that you can access is “good enough” the one that you can’t access is even better.? That it is better came about through some serendipity and a commercial supplier of dice; the behaviour of which is just about perfect for what we are trying to show.? Once again the simulators are a way of testing these games based upon real dice.

 

This Webpage Copyright ? 2014- 2015 by Dr K. J. Youngman

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